Week 1 NFL picks

The start of the 2009 NFL season is upon us in tonight's Titans at Steelers matchup, and I can't remember feeling this unenthusiastic about it since 1998, the season that followed the Cowboys' 6-10 year that effectively ended their glorious dynasty of my youth. Once again, I blame my feelings on the Cowboys--after the hype-collapse roller coaster that has characterized their last two seasons, I'm wary of allowing myself to get too pumped, and when I'm not pumped about the Cowboys, I'm not pumped about the NFL.

In the pre-glory years of my early childhood, I was too young not to be hopeful, but even in the dark days of Dave Campo, Chad Hutchinson, and three straight 5-11 finishes, I couldn't wait for the offseason to end, probably a little bit because I didn't yet have a baseball habit to fill my summers, but mostly because I always felt the upcoming season would see the Cowboys finally find their way out of the rut they've been mired in since the Super Bowl years. I wouldn't be me if I weren't a little too excited about the Cowboys' chances from year to year, but the last two seasons hurt badly enough to have left me opting for an uncustomary wait-and-see approach. I'll watch every game and hope for the best, but I won't expect it. Even if I would still choose them to win the Super Bowl if you pressed me for an answer right now.

On to my picks, ranked according to the 1 (least certain)-to-16 (most certain) sliding scale we're using for some friendly wagering in the office:

Team	Winner	Points
Kansas City @ Baltimore	BAL	16
Dallas @ Tampa Bay	DAL	15
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis	IND	14
Detroit @ New Orleans	NO	13
Chicago @ Green Bay	GB	12
Washington @ NY Giants	WAS	11
San Diego @ Oakland	SAN	10
Miami @ Atlanta	MIA	9
St. Louis @ Seattle	SEA	8
San Francisco @ Arizona	ARI	7
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh	TEN	6
Denver @ Cincinnati	CIN	5
Buffalo @ New England	BUF	4
Minnesota @ Cleveland	CLE	3
NY Jets @ Houston	HOU	2
Philadelphia @ Carolina	PHI	1

I'll likely expand upon my rationale in future weeks, but for this set, I have just a couple of quick thoughts (gotta get home for the game, of course!):

• I picked Baltimore in my survival league this week, which I figured was reason enough to give them the 16. Otherwise, Dallas would have gotten it. (I can't help it.)
• Oakland got shut out through three quarters in their Week 3 preseason game. Week 3 (starters week). In preseason.
• I'm hopeful this year is the beginning of the end for the Pats' run, and I like Trent Edwards to Lee Evans/T.O., so I picked accordingly. The Pats' old-time, feel-good stalwarts are gone, Brady's 32 and returning from injury, and their corps of running backs is patchwork and aging, at best. Who's with me?