Random after-midnight thoughts

I was inspired to rattle off some shallow thoughts after chatting with an old friend who panned the Cowboys' choice of Demarcus Ware over Shawne Merriman at the time in 2005, calling to mind this post from last year. Also, "After Midnight" is one of Clapton's worst songs. On that note, the Lakers' second straight title aside, the other teams I support have conspired to make this one of the most unhappy years in my 20-plus-year sporting memory:


Colt McCoy got injured early in the BCS National Championship game, and Garrett Gilbert isn't going to take the Longhorns anywhere over the next three years.

The Cowboys ended the 2009 season by winning their first playoff game since the triplets, then didn't even score a touchdown against the Vikings in the divisional round.

The Dodgers started fast, then Ethier and Manny got hurt, Ned Colletti publicly insulted Matt Kemp's smarts and hustle, Russell Martin continued to ground out a lot, Colletti pretended they were contenders long enough to give up more good prospects in some awful deals at the deadline, and I ended up watching a strange mix of has-beens and no-talent/all-hustle guys like Jamey Carroll and Scott Podsednik eat up at-bats en route to an 80-82 record.

It's Giants (as my coworker put it today, a roster of journeymen plus Buster Posey) and Phillies (smarmy punks) in a no-win NLCS.

The 2010 Cowboys remain the dumbest, most undisciplined team in the NFL and have their 1-4 record to show for it, despite dominating their opponents in yardage and time of possession every week. It's that idea of "hidden yardage" old Bill P. always mentioned and, no matter what Jerry Jones says, they Cowboys are what their record says they are (another favorite Parcells-ism). They have the talent to turn it around, but they're inconsistent, partly due to the character of the players on the roster, but largely due to a weak-minded head coach and an offensive coordinator who can't make adjustments, hates the run, and doesn't appear to be employing any real offensive system. Much like I wrote in my preview of the 2009 season, I'm always pumped to see the Cowboys play, but I couldn't get pumped for their prospects this season. I never know what I'm going to get from this team, and it hurts less to take a more measured perspective.

To top it all off, my primary fantasy football team (renamed this year to The Other Roy Williams Domination Maneuver) is barely 3-3 after I botched probably the first three rounds of the draft.

On a positive note, Brett Favre continues to be revealed as the despicable person I always told everyone he was. This has led to another positive: awareness of the dangers of celldonging.

He's back!

Eric Gagne signed a minor-league deal with an invitation to major-league spring training today. Again, I hope this works out, but I have absolutely no expectation that it will--after all, he pretty much got lit-up in the Canadian league last year.

If it doesn't work out, maybe he can become pitching coach, or at least bullpen coach. Rick Honeycutt never really seems to add anything or actually help turn around pitchers when they're struggling in-game; he's certainly no Jim Colborn, plus many, if not most, Dodgers fans still think fondly of him. Remember how learning Gagne's changeup temporarily turned around Guillermo Mota's career as part of the stalwart Dodger bullpens of 2003-04? Can you imagine him lumbering out to the mound to knock some sense into Jonathan Broxton's fragile psyche? Or what about the massive sweat-off any time he visits Chad Billingsley? When I mentioned the idea, my friend took the brilliance one step further. Think "Welcome to the Jungle" accompanied by the Game Over Gagne faces flashing on the scoreboards every time he makes a mound visit. This sounds like a winning idea for all involved.

Good luck, Eric.

Welcome (Back) to the Jungle?

So I've been gone for a few months. As soon as the NFL season started, I went on hiatus to ramp up my studying for the LSAT, followed by a few months of worrying non-stop about whether to apply to law school with a sucky LSAT score.

Fall proceeded nonetheless. My Dodgers World Series dreams came and went, leaving me with a well-used rally towel by which to remember the Matt Holliday groin game and all of Vin Scully's subsequent groin-related euphemisms, not to mention a second towel from the Phillies series that I use to plug the gap in my window when I run through the car wash. My Cowboys Super Bowl dreams came and went, with my attempts to remain unhopeful dissolving into the by-now-trite (at least to me) roller coaster of emotions, but I'm happy Romo stopped playing Favre and that the team found a defensive identity to carry into next year. Speaking of Favre, I still can't believe he willingly deferred to Adrian Peterson for most of the season; yes, I was wrong about his stats, but he still single-handedly tanked the Vikings' season in the end, which I found very satisfying. Also satisfying was the seeming fruition of my hopes for the unequivocal end of the Patriots' decade of dominance. Overall, while the football season ended disappointingly, even in light of the fact that the BCS title game never happened, I feel much more comfortable with what I started to see take shape with the Cowboys than what the Dodgers left me with at the end of the baseball season.

Now that football's over, and we've come full circle to the cusp of spring training, I suppose it's time to start addressing that, but that's not what brought me out of hibernation today. Instead, I'll admit that I'm prematurely, irrationally giddy about the latest rumor of Eric Gagne's return to the Dodgers. Early yesterday, my colleague passed on the news that the Dodgers and Rockie were working him out; today, Jon Heyman reported that the Dodgers are the leading candidate to sign him. No, it didn't end well the first time around: he injured his knee, pitched through the injury, injured himself further, was never the same, and still asked for a ton of money that the Dodgers weren't willing to give him. He went to Texas, and I started listening to the end of Rangers games hoping to catch some game-ending strikeouts. Then, the Rangers traded him to Boston, and I (and Red Sox fans) wanted to die, followed by Milwaukee and incrimination with buddy, former batterymate, and my former favorite Dodger Paul LoDuca in the whole steroids mess.

Throughout it all, I always hoped he'd come back to L.A. because, before it ended badly, Eric Gagne provided me with three-plus of the best years of my life as a sports fan, and I don't care that he likely fueled those years with steroids. You had to have been a Dodgers fan, and you had to have been there, but there's a reason why playing "Welcome to the Jungle" on Guitar Hero III, hearing "Welcome to the Jungle" on the radio, or even thinking about "Welcome to the Jungle" still makes me misty-eyed. Brazoban was a fat, one-dimensional fly ball machine. Saito was great, but he was old enough that we knew it wouldn't last long, and he always looked like he'd just walked into surprise lottery party every time he earned a save. Broxton throws as fast as Gagne threw in his prime, but he's inconsistent, relies too much on his heat, and let Matt Stairs, of all people, get inside his head. I have no illusions that re-tread Gagne would come anywhere close to matching his salad days, but I hold a deep-seated need to see him rumble out of the bullpen to "Welcome to the Jungle" one more time, even if he only ever strikes out one more batter in his life. It just ended too soon and too abruptly last time; as a woman, sometimes I guess I just need closure.

Week 1 NFL picks

The start of the 2009 NFL season is upon us in tonight's Titans at Steelers matchup, and I can't remember feeling this unenthusiastic about it since 1998, the season that followed the Cowboys' 6-10 year that effectively ended their glorious dynasty of my youth. Once again, I blame my feelings on the Cowboys--after the hype-collapse roller coaster that has characterized their last two seasons, I'm wary of allowing myself to get too pumped, and when I'm not pumped about the Cowboys, I'm not pumped about the NFL.

In the pre-glory years of my early childhood, I was too young not to be hopeful, but even in the dark days of Dave Campo, Chad Hutchinson, and three straight 5-11 finishes, I couldn't wait for the offseason to end, probably a little bit because I didn't yet have a baseball habit to fill my summers, but mostly because I always felt the upcoming season would see the Cowboys finally find their way out of the rut they've been mired in since the Super Bowl years. I wouldn't be me if I weren't a little too excited about the Cowboys' chances from year to year, but the last two seasons hurt badly enough to have left me opting for an uncustomary wait-and-see approach. I'll watch every game and hope for the best, but I won't expect it. Even if I would still choose them to win the Super Bowl if you pressed me for an answer right now.

On to my picks, ranked according to the 1 (least certain)-to-16 (most certain) sliding scale we're using for some friendly wagering in the office:

Team	Winner	Points
Kansas City @ Baltimore	BAL	16
Dallas @ Tampa Bay	DAL	15
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis	IND	14
Detroit @ New Orleans	NO	13
Chicago @ Green Bay	GB	12
Washington @ NY Giants	WAS	11
San Diego @ Oakland	SAN	10
Miami @ Atlanta	MIA	9
St. Louis @ Seattle	SEA	8
San Francisco @ Arizona	ARI	7
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh	TEN	6
Denver @ Cincinnati	CIN	5
Buffalo @ New England	BUF	4
Minnesota @ Cleveland	CLE	3
NY Jets @ Houston	HOU	2
Philadelphia @ Carolina	PHI	1

I'll likely expand upon my rationale in future weeks, but for this set, I have just a couple of quick thoughts (gotta get home for the game, of course!):

• I picked Baltimore in my survival league this week, which I figured was reason enough to give them the 16. Otherwise, Dallas would have gotten it. (I can't help it.)
• Oakland got shut out through three quarters in their Week 3 preseason game. Week 3 (starters week). In preseason.
• I'm hopeful this year is the beginning of the end for the Pats' run, and I like Trent Edwards to Lee Evans/T.O., so I picked accordingly. The Pats' old-time, feel-good stalwarts are gone, Brady's 32 and returning from injury, and their corps of running backs is patchwork and aging, at best. Who's with me?

More Favre BS

Just saw on SportsCenter that Brett "S." Favre claims that the Jets knew about his torn biceps last season, and he was willing to defer to Kellen Clemens, but the Jets insisted that Favre play through it anyway. When has Favre ever given up a start to anyone? He's started 16 games a season every season since his third, playing through injuries to hold on to that lame consecutive starts record. Favre trying to defer to Clemens probably would have consisted of Favre making sure to get in his start, playing a series or two, then leaving the game. Or just staying in the game and throwing a bunch of picks. Which is what he did.

The second piece of Favre news today, because you know how much he likes headlines, is the shocker that he's predicting in advance that he "may not finish the year" because he doesn't know whether his body can handle a full season. If that's the case, then why let the Vikings pay you $12M this year? If he can't make it through a full season, what good is he? Even if he can, he'll throw a lot of picks and kill them in the playoffs if they get there, so what good is he? Sounds like cop-out bet-hedging to me.

My Favre prediction this year is 3,100 yards, 15 TD, 20 INT, and 16 starts. Because Favre would never miss a start, for the good of the team and because he loves playing football in his backyard so much. Or something.

A very (early) Cowboy thanksgiving, etc.

Over the weekend, Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman (second from left in the picture) once again made headlines for his off-field feats. Even if the accusations that he choked and "threw" girlfriend/"female acquaintance" Tila Tequila prove false, the fact that this is a story at all is reason #146 why I'm thankful the Cowboys drafted Demarcus Ware (far left) over Merriman with the 11th pick in 2005. I thought it was a "1 vs. 1A" choice at the time and very quickly came to appreciate that Ware was a much more multi-dimensional player. I'd have to say Ware won most Cowboys fans over to that opinion within his first two seasons, but fans from the rest of the league still didn't get it, and I still have friends who laugh whenever I assert this.

Here's the full comparison:

• Playing style: They both play the same position, but I'd probably characterize Merriman's play as one-dimensional beastness. He's tasked from week to week with getting to the QB, which he admittedly does very well, but that's about it. Ware, on the other hand, has been asked from the beginning to pass-rush, stop the run, drop back in coverage, do it from both sides, and he's done it all exceedingly well. Advantage: Ware.
• Intangibles: Merriman's already lost four games to a steroid suspension, performs a habitually-ridiculous celebration dance (Lights Out!), and tends to show a general lack of class (ask Jason Taylor circa January 2007). By the time this alleged Tequila incident happened... let's just say I won't be surprised if it's true. Ware, on the other hand, is generally such a nice guy that people including Bill Parcells have wondered how he can play with such ferocity on the football field. Advantage: Ware.
• Durability: Merriman's never played a full 16-game regular season, while Ware has played nothing but. Advantage: Ware.
  
• Stats: Merriman from 2005: 10, 17, 12.5, 0 sacks, respectively (39.5 career), and 190 total tackles (including assists). Ware from 2005: 8, 11.5, 14, 20 (53.5 career), and 299 total tackles. Advantage: Ware, even without considering how many of Merriman's numbers could be tainted because that's something I tend to excuse in football anyway.

Even when Merriman's Defensive Rookie of the Year award seemed to tilt the debate in his favor early on, I've counted myself among the Cowboys fans who recognize how much more than flash and sack totals D-Ware brings to the team, and it pleases me to see we're starting to become the majority. I'd take Ware over Merriman 100 out of 100 times.

With that settled, given the subject of my previous post, it would be poor form for me not to address the fact that not one, but two, more offensive coordinators were fired after Gailey last week. The Buccaneers fired former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinski mere months after hiring him (which, in turn, had come quickly after BC fired him for merely interviewing with pro teams), and the Bills fired Turk Schonert before what would have been his second season calling the offensive shots.

Word is Jagodzinski just wasn't detail-oriented enough, which is something you'd hope to have determined in the interview. Raheem Morris claims he didn't feel Jagodzinski brought enough precision to the offense; it's only preseason, so you can't expect mid-season form, but sounds like it was due more to a flaw in Jagodzinski's style. More of an understandable firing because he didn't really have an NFL pedigree to evaluate beforehand. (My bad: he's got eight years of prior NFL experience. I should have done my homework, kind of like the Bucs! Looks like this misstep was inexcusable after all.)

The Schonert firing, however, seems a totally reactionary panic move in what's often ballyhooed as "a copycat league." Head coach Dick Jauron admitted he really didn't plan this move too far in advance; rather, he just went with the thought when it arose, something I highly doubt would have happened had Gailey and Jagodzinski not already gotten the hook.

Interestingly, both Tampa and Buffalo promoted assistants to fill the vacant role, which makes sense, since both Morris and Jauron are defensive guys. Tampa can barely figure out its quarterback situation and isn't really expected to do much anyway. T.O. acquisition aside, Buffalo's trying to hand over more and more of the big positions to younger players, so it's understandable that Jauron wanted a simpler (Schonert has said "Pop Warner") offense, but this move doesn't stand to have a huge impact one way or the other either.

All three of the coordinator firings speak to a set of bad teams in turmoil, but I think they also speak to the short attention span and quick trigger that has become increasingly characteristic of the NFL in recent years. This is why you see young players labeled busts if they need a few years to mature--they're usually released before they get that shot. It's why you see teams draft quarterbacks, start them too soon, then yank them for veteran has-beens the second they struggle. Teams just aren't willing to put up with a losing season or two while their kids develop, which tends to result in even more prolonged losing. One of many great things about Bill Parcells was his willingness to let young players develop. He always thought his draft classes should start to produce by the third season, not necessarily right away, and his QBs got even more time: Chad Pennington learned behind Vinny Testaverde into his third season, and Tony Romo hung around as a small-school undrafted free agent before getting his definitive shot in his fourth season (granted, in Romo's case, you have to credit Drew Bledsoe for being so downright immobile, unvisionary, and overall terrible that one more week wasn't an option). Now, after the 2008 successes of Joe Flacco (not really that good--look it up) and "handsome" Matt Ryan (better, but not great), we'll see an even more pronounced lack of patience with young quarterbacks. I shudder to think that Troy Aikman might have been dismissed as a bust after his winless (0-11 before he was yanked for Steve Walsh. Oh and eleven!) rookie season in today's league.

Good luck, Matt Stafford.

P.S. As for the other two guys in the picture at the top of this post, I'd take Terrell Suggs on my team, but Mike Vrabel's underratedness was so overrated that he became overrated, and now he's on his last legs anyway. Maybe he'll see some more touchdowns in Kansas City now that Tony Gonzalez is gone.

There's a time and a place, and other news

Chiefs remove Gailey as offensive coordinator
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Three games into the preseason, and Chan Gailey's out as Chiefs offensive coordinator. While one could argue that it's better to make this sort of move now rather than in-season (in fact, my friend just made this argument, which inspired this post), that argument misses the point that it would have made far more sense to have made this move when the new regime took over in the offseason.

Todd Haley's a first-time head coach, whose role as o-coordinator for the overachieving AZ Cardinals Super Bowl team last year made him a trendy-enough pick to overshadow a series of public personality clashes with his receivers in Dallas and Arizona. The NFL's so obsessed with the Next Big Thing; the success of first-timers John Harbaugh (Ravens) and Mike Smith (Falcons) had a bunch of teams searching for first-year guys of their own this offseason, which I think led to guys like Haley and Josh McDaniels (Broncos) getting their shot a little prematurely, particularly in Haley's case--I don't think you can just gloss over those spats he had with T.O. and Anquan Boldin (I give him until Week 8 to alienate Larry Johnson, which isn't hard to do, but still...). Anyway, I find it hard to believe that a first-timer like Haley didn't have his own guy in mind to bring with him as offensive coordinator. How does Haley get his big shot and stand pat with Gailey, the guy who coordinated one of the worst teams in the league last year (2-14 record), whose offense was seventh-worst (291 points scored), all under a blundering head coach best remembered for the fact that, hel-LO?! He PLAYS. To WIN. THE GAME.??? Maybe I'm still biased against Gailey for his inability to make the most of Troy Aikman's twilight years as Cowboys head coach in the late 1990s; regardless, I don't see how Haley didn't bring in his own guy. Now he'll really have no one to pin blame on if the offense keeps sucking, which, whether behind Matt Cassel (just injured), Brodie Croyle (really?), or Tyler Thigpen (double-really?), it probably will.

In other news, Vin Scully just broke news of two huge acquisitions during the game. Jim Thome and Jon Garland are now Dodgers. They just showed Garland being escorted from the DBacks' dugout. Thome has always annoyed me for some reason that may have no more weight behind it than the fact that I hate the Phillies and don't like the way he wears his socks, just as I've always liked Garland for reasons equally unknown. I think that one goes back to my '04 or '05 fantasy baseball team. Fortunately, the Dodgers didn't trade away anyone good, but that's more because they don't have anyone good left who isn't already on the 40-man. Gotta love Colletti's persistent approach of trying to solve holes in the roster by throwing as many players as possible at them. By that, I mean I don't love it; that's the kind of approach that leads to a close trading relationship with the Devil Rays before they were good, or inviting Esteban Loaiza to Spring Training and letting him have too many starts, or anything having to do with Mark Sweeney. At least these latest moves don't seem as half-baked as many of the others; I'm willing to see them out.

P.S. Darn it, Rusty Ryal. Who names a kid Rusty without it being short for anything? Apparently, Mark Ryal does. Dodgers down 4-3 in the 10th now. Blah.

EDIT: That same friend has already pointed out that, because Haley's an offense guy, the assumption was that the offense was already going to be largely his product anyway, or he'd be heavily involved at the very least. Yes, that may be true, but if anything, that makes the attempt to go into the season with Gailey even more questionable. If it was just a wait-and-see, maybe-this-can-work approach, then I think Gailey has a long enough track record in the NFL for Haley and GM Scott Pioli to know Gailey's and Haley's offensive styles aren't very compatible in advance of this little experiment. Either Haley should have brought in his own guy, or he should have just had full reign from the start. All I'm saying is the Chiefs shouldn't have had to make this move this close to the regular season.