Thursday, September 10, 2009

Week 1 NFL picks

The start of the 2009 NFL season is upon us in tonight's Titans at Steelers matchup, and I can't remember feeling this unenthusiastic about it since 1998, the season that followed the Cowboys' 6-10 year that effectively ended their glorious dynasty of my youth. Once again, I blame my feelings on the Cowboys--after the hype-collapse roller coaster that has characterized their last two seasons, I'm wary of allowing myself to get too pumped, and when I'm not pumped about the Cowboys, I'm not pumped about the NFL.

In the pre-glory years of my early childhood, I was too young not to be hopeful, but even in the dark days of Dave Campo, Chad Hutchinson, and three straight 5-11 finishes, I couldn't wait for the offseason to end, probably a little bit because I didn't yet have a baseball habit to fill my summers, but mostly because I always felt the upcoming season would see the Cowboys finally find their way out of the rut they've been mired in since the Super Bowl years. I wouldn't be me if I weren't a little too excited about the Cowboys' chances from year to year, but the last two seasons hurt badly enough to have left me opting for an uncustomary wait-and-see approach. I'll watch every game and hope for the best, but I won't expect it. Even if I would still choose them to win the Super Bowl if you pressed me for an answer right now.

On to my picks, ranked according to the 1 (least certain)-to-16 (most certain) sliding scale we're using for some friendly wagering in the office:

Team Winner Points
Kansas City @ Baltimore BAL 16
Dallas @ Tampa Bay DAL 15
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis IND 14
Detroit @ New Orleans NO 13
Chicago @ Green Bay GB 12
Washington @ NY Giants WAS 11
San Diego @ Oakland SAN 10
Miami @ Atlanta MIA 9
St. Louis @ Seattle SEA 8
San Francisco @ Arizona ARI 7
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh TEN 6
Denver @ Cincinnati CIN 5
Buffalo @ New England BUF 4
Minnesota @ Cleveland CLE 3
NY Jets @ Houston HOU 2
Philadelphia @ Carolina PHI 1

I'll likely expand upon my rationale in future weeks, but for this set, I have just a couple of quick thoughts (gotta get home for the game, of course!):
  • I picked Baltimore in my survival league this week, which I figured was reason enough to give them the 16. Otherwise, Dallas would have gotten it. (I can't help it.)
  • Oakland got shut out through three quarters in their Week 3 preseason game. Week 3 (starters week). In preseason.
  • I'm hopeful this year is the beginning of the end for the Pats' run, and I like Trent Edwards to Lee Evans/T.O., so I picked accordingly. The Pats' old-time, feel-good stalwarts are gone, Brady's 32 and returning from injury, and their corps of running backs is patchwork and aging, at best. Who's with me?

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

More Favre BS

Just saw on SportsCenter that Brett "S." Favre claims that the Jets knew about his torn biceps last season, and he was willing to defer to Kellen Clemens, but the Jets insisted that Favre play through it anyway. When has Favre ever given up a start to anyone? He's started 16 games a season every season since his third, playing through injuries to hold on to that lame consecutive starts record. Favre trying to defer to Clemens probably would have consisted of Favre making sure to get in his start, playing a series or two, then leaving the game. Or just staying in the game and throwing a bunch of picks. Which is what he did.

The second piece of Favre news today, because you know how much he likes headlines, is the shocker that he's predicting in advance that he "may not finish the year" because he doesn't know whether his body can handle a full season. If that's the case, then why let the Vikings pay you $12M this year? If he can't make it through a full season, what good is he? Even if he can, he'll throw a lot of picks and kill them in the playoffs if they get there, so what good is he? Sounds like cop-out bet-hedging to me.

My Favre prediction this year is 3,100 yards, 15 TD, 20 INT, and 16 starts. Because Favre would never miss a start, for the good of the team and because he loves playing football in his backyard so much. Or something.

Monday, September 7, 2009

A very (early) Cowboy thanksgiving, etc.

Over the weekend, Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman (second from left in the picture) once again made headlines for his off-field feats. Even if the accusations that he choked and "threw" girlfriend/"female acquaintance" Tila Tequila prove false, the fact that this is a story at all is reason #146 why I'm thankful the Cowboys drafted Demarcus Ware (far left) over Merriman with the 11th pick in 2005. I thought it was a "1 vs. 1A" choice at the time and very quickly came to appreciate that Ware was a much more multi-dimensional player. I'd have to say Ware won most Cowboys fans over to that opinion within his first two seasons, but fans from the rest of the league still didn't get it, and I still have friends who laugh whenever I assert this.

Here's the full comparison:
  • Playing style: They both play the same position, but I'd probably characterize Merriman's play as one-dimensional beastness. He's tasked from week to week with getting to the QB, which he admittedly does very well, but that's about it. Ware, on the other hand, has been asked from the beginning to pass-rush, stop the run, drop back in coverage, do it from both sides, and he's done it all exceedingly well. Advantage: Ware.
  • Intangibles: Merriman's already lost four games to a steroid suspension, performs a habitually-ridiculous celebration dance (Lights Out!), and tends to show a general lack of class (ask Jason Taylor circa January 2007). By the time this alleged Tequila incident happened... let's just say I won't be surprised if it's true. Ware, on the other hand, is generally such a nice guy that people including Bill Parcells have wondered how he can play with such ferocity on the football field. Advantage: Ware.
  • Durability: Merriman's never played a full 16-game regular season, while Ware has played nothing but. Advantage: Ware.
  • Stats: Merriman from 2005: 10, 17, 12.5, 0 sacks, respectively (39.5 career), and 190 total tackles (including assists). Ware from 2005: 8, 11.5, 14, 20 (53.5 career), and 299 total tackles. Advantage: Ware, even without considering how many of Merriman's numbers could be tainted because that's something I tend to excuse in football anyway.
Even when Merriman's Defensive Rookie of the Year award seemed to tilt the debate in his favor early on, I've counted myself among the Cowboys fans who recognize how much more than flash and sack totals D-Ware brings to the team, and it pleases me to see we're starting to become the majority. I'd take Ware over Merriman 100 out of 100 times.

With that settled, given the subject of my previous post, it would be poor form for me not to address the fact that not one, but two, more offensive coordinators were fired after Gailey last week. The Buccaneers fired former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinski mere months after hiring him (which, in turn, had come quickly after BC fired him for merely interviewing with pro teams), and the Bills fired Turk Schonert before what would have been his second season calling the offensive shots.

Word is Jagodzinski just wasn't detail-oriented enough, which is something you'd hope to have determined in the interview. Raheem Morris claims he didn't feel Jagodzinski brought enough precision to the offense; it's only preseason, so you can't expect mid-season form, but sounds like it was due more to a flaw in Jagodzinski's style. More of an understandable firing because he didn't really have an NFL pedigree to evaluate beforehand. (My bad: he's got eight years of prior NFL experience. I should have done my homework, kind of like the Bucs! Looks like this misstep was inexcusable after all.)

The Schonert firing, however, seems a totally reactionary panic move in what's often ballyhooed as "a copycat league." Head coach Dick Jauron admitted he really didn't plan this move too far in advance; rather, he just went with the thought when it arose, something I highly doubt would have happened had Gailey and Jagodzinski not already gotten the hook.

Interestingly, both Tampa and Buffalo promoted assistants to fill the vacant role, which makes sense, since both Morris and Jauron are defensive guys. Tampa can barely figure out its quarterback situation and isn't really expected to do much anyway. T.O. acquisition aside, Buffalo's trying to hand over more and more of the big positions to younger players, so it's understandable that Jauron wanted a simpler (Schonert has said "Pop Warner") offense, but this move doesn't stand to have a huge impact one way or the other either.

All three of the coordinator firings speak to a set of bad teams in turmoil, but I think they also speak to the short attention span and quick trigger that has become increasingly characteristic of the NFL in recent years. This is why you see young players labeled busts if they need a few years to mature--they're usually released before they get that shot. It's why you see teams draft quarterbacks, start them too soon, then yank them for veteran has-beens the second they struggle. Teams just aren't willing to put up with a losing season or two while their kids develop, which tends to result in even more prolonged losing. One of many great things about Bill Parcells was his willingness to let young players develop. He always thought his draft classes should start to produce by the third season, not necessarily right away, and his QBs got even more time: Chad Pennington learned behind Vinny Testaverde into his third season, and Tony Romo hung around as a small-school undrafted free agent before getting his definitive shot in his fourth season (granted, in Romo's case, you have to credit Drew Bledsoe for being so downright immobile, unvisionary, and overall terrible that one more week wasn't an option). Now, after the 2008 successes of Joe Flacco (not really that good--look it up) and "handsome" Matt Ryan (better, but not great), we'll see an even more pronounced lack of patience with young quarterbacks. I shudder to think that Troy Aikman might have been dismissed as a bust after his winless (0-11 before he was yanked for Steve Walsh. Oh and eleven!) rookie season in today's league.

Good luck, Matt Stafford.

P.S. As for the other two guys in the picture at the top of this post, I'd take Terrell Suggs on my team, but Mike Vrabel's underratedness was so overrated that he became overrated, and now he's on his last legs anyway. Maybe he'll see some more touchdowns in Kansas City now that Tony Gonzalez is gone.